🍞 Beyond Sourdough: Predictions for the post-COVID consumer

Post-crisis, shopping local will symbolize status and fashion will return to tradition and minimalism

Hi Friends, 

Thank you for tuning in for the first edition of Curious Commerce. I’m so happy to have you here! I’m Melina. I work as a strategist for retail and consumer businesses, and have my own womenswear brand, Keaton.

I’m starting this newsletter because articulating my thoughts in writing makes me a better thinker. It makes me smarter, and I hope it can make you smarter too!

I love working in the consumer space because it’s a true blend of art and science. There’s tons of data flowing in everyday about what people are buying, what ads they click, and what stores they visit (yes, your phone is probably tracking you). And then there’s the art of talking to people, tying in history, current events, and human psychology to paint the complete picture of why people buy. Obviously I haven’t figured this out--or I’d be rich--but I enjoy trying. 

Curious Commerce is my weekly attempt to decode the future of commerce, inspired by other disciplines. With that, let’s dive in to Issue #1! 

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Photo by Cam Morin on Unsplash

I’m sitting at my desk with my sourdough starter burbling happily next to me and a half-finished knit scarf taunting me from across the room. It seems like things were always this way, yet just a few weeks ago I was like so many other Milennials: nearly hobby-less, unless I count an affinity for brunch or a facile interest in California wines. It makes me wonder how many of these new trends are short-term blips due to our quarantined state, and how many will create lasting changes in how we consume. 

I believe COVID will magnify mindsets and trends that were present pre-crisis. I tried to focus on less-obvious trends here (no discussion of the future of work) since there has been so much great coverage of these topics already.  Here are a few less obvious predictions that I have for the post-COVID consumer: 

Prediction #1: Supporting local businesses will be the new status symbol

Many of us have supported local businesses by purchasing take out meals and gift cards. This is just the beginning in a wave of support for small businesses.  

One of my favorite writers, Ana Andjelic, writes,

“Modern class is anchored not in accumulation and display of possessions or even experiences, but of knowledge.”

Conspicuous consumption has been replaced by a harder-to-replicate status display transacted through cultural currencies (she provides examples of how a vegan diet affords social status, or how knowledge about a streetwear drop is a scarce and valuable resource). I believe that shopping with local businesses has already taken on this form of status, and will continue to do so post-crisis. 

Supporting local businesses fits the mold of “status symbol” for three reasons. First, it requires specialized knowledge. Everyone is aware of Amazon and Walmart, but only local experts know about the best butcher, flower shop, or sandwich place in their neighborhood. Even knowing that it is important to support local businesses--that they are integral to the economy and uniquely vulnerable in this crisis--is itself a form of specialized knowledge. Second, goods from “mom and pop” businesses are relatively scarce and thus are a valuable resource. The fact that locally-made goods tend to command a price premium is a third marker of status. 

A few additional predictions stem from this: 

• Consumers will use their patronage of small businesses as a virtue signal: Securing a reservation at a local farm-to-table restaurant was already a status marker for today’s consumer pre-crisis. There is now an additional social good associated with supporting these businesses that elevate patronage to a virtuous practice. Social media will be full of public displays of support for local businesses.

• New services that enable consumers to discover and support small businesses will boom: Because consumers are so eager to support local businesses and display their consumption, services that enable connection and discovery will blossom. Called the “anti-Amazon,” Bookshop launched recently to connect consumers with indie booksellers online. I’ve also seen quite a few directories of small businesses launch, like this one in D.C. I wouldn’t be surprised to see these concepts evolving into matching services, recommendation engines, and other formats. 

• DTC brands will embrace their local ties: Traditionally, many of the more visible direct-to-consumer brands have existed agnostic to geography. Outdoor Voices is based in Austin, but the OV girl can just as easily be pictured #DoingThings in LA, Colorado, or the Hamptons. I predict that in the next few months, we’ll see DTC brands shift their marketing focus to their local roots, showcasing their tight-knit office and supplier communities. They will partner with other locally-based brands to host volunteering and community events when things return to “normal,” just as they are partnering now in the digital space.

Prediction #2: Fashion and design will return to tradition and simplicity

Throughout history, fashion has mirrored economic conditions. Leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, excess was all the rage. These were my high school years, and I dread photo evidence surfacing of the rhinestone-encrusted, neon outfits I thought were chic. After the crisis, an entirely new aesthetic emerged, one of minimalism. This piece by Eliza Brooke for Vox details this transition. A few factors characterized the shift, many of which mirror our current situation: 

• Showy consumption was frowned upon, because it was “uncool to look rich”: Brooke writes, “The ways we adorn ourselves and our homes — and the ways brands dress themselves up to get our attention — speak to our personal and national relationships with money.” In the wake of COVID, more than 16 million Americans have filed for unemployment. We have already seen a backlash against wealthy people who have posted tasteless content. While they will continue to consume, it will become less obvious.

• Luxury products that thrived were subtly branded and understated: After 2008, brands like Phoebe Philo’s “Old Celine” emerged to provide a luxe but minimally branded product. Hermes reported that neutral color Birkin bags began to sell at higher volumes relative to colorful bags. Lauren Sherman of the Business of Fashion speculates that we can expect another period of minimalist fashion in our future, with “investment pieces” that are seen as more responsible choices accounting for a greater share of luxury purchases.

• The first wave of DTC brands, like Warby Parker and Everlane, emerged to offer transparency: “That first generation of direct-to-consumer successes started in that post-Recession moment,” says Leo Wang, CEO of Buffy. “They were about value, honesty, transparency of economics, and getting a good deal…Corporate America had swindled [consumers].” In this iteration, it’s interesting to think about what new business models will emerge. In 2008, the “enemy” was Corporate America. Today, COVID has highlighted challenges in healthcare access and fractures in our relationship with work and productivity. I can see solutions in these spaces accelerating. 

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What I’m Reading:

📚 Unfollow: A Memoir of Loving and Leaving the Westboro Baptist Church - Meghan Phelps-Roper (support your local indie and buy with my Bookshop link!)

📚 Why We Buy: The Science of Shopping - Paco Underhill (a classic!)

📰 The Office Dress Code Should Never Come Back - Amanda Mull

📰 The Deadliest Virus Ever Known - Malcolm Gladwell

📰 The Nuclear Family Was A Mistake - David Brooks

Thanks for reading the first edition of Curious Commerce! Please feel free to share any feedback, and if you like it--share with a friend!

Stay Curious,

Melina