👠 New-ish Year, New Trends
Buckle up for a year of weird product collaborations, dressing up again, and remaining couch-bound by choice.
Welcome back to Curious Commerce, and happy new year (am I still allowed to say that?)!
I’ve been on hiatus for the past couple of months because I’m still figuring out how to have a full-time job, write a newsletter, and enjoy life. While some folks I follow on Twitter allegedly take an ice bath, meditate for two hours, make an angel investment, and build a newsletter empire each day before breakfast, I have not yet mastered this.
While my publishing frequency has been spottier than I’d like, I did a few things I’m proud of in 2020: I started a new job, took on a consulting gig with a really cool startup, surpassed my annual running goal, and jumped at every opportunity to do outdoor NYC things. Plus, I started this newsletter! Not making the highlight reel is the 80% completed knit scarf I started in April, the sourdough starter I left to grow unchecked in my in-laws’ fridge, and the copious amount of Netflix I watched.
Consider this post a grab bag of some interesting topics that I believe will play a big role this year. These trends reflect the logical evolution of the wild shifts we saw in 2020. I’ve avoided the obvious ones like “eCommerce will continue to grow,” because I know you’ve read those takes already.
Trend #1: Modern relics
A relic traditionally refers to a personal effect that’s tied to a saint or renowned individual. In 2021, this vaunted category will broaden to include anyone with a lot of TikTok followers. Driven by the rise of niche communities and the increased ubiquity of multi-channel social media, we will see some weird consumer products and collaborations pop up that offer a piece of our favorite tastemakers.
2020 saw a crop of interesting celebrity/influencer product launches and collaborations. A subset of ones that caught my eye:
Gwyneth Paltrow, always the trendsetter, released this NSFW candle back in January.
Maude, a sexual wellness company, appointed actress Dakota Johnson as co-Creative Director.
Mask brand Loops added Emily Ratajkowski as a Partner and Creative Director.
The running apparel brand Tracksmith hired two well-known runners as full-time employees.
Megan Thee Stallion sold her concert outfits and wardrobe faves on Depop.
McDonald’s released meals with Travis Scott and J.Balvin.
Tesla launched a Tequila (sadly sold out)
Kacey Musgraves launched a candle with Boy Smells to promote her new album.
Vibe-based marketing
In my consulting days, we’d help clients understand from consumer feedback, competitive analysis, and sales data whether they had “permission to play” when entering a new category. For example, could a well-known brand of canned soup succeed with launching a frozen meal?
As we move into an era where amassing an audience is a core commerce driver, the idea of “permission to play” is not as clear-cut. New product launches, whether from celebrities or brands, are increasingly category-agnostic. This approach to product line extensions was traditionally the hallmark of “lifestyle brands”—brands that strategically attempt to own wide-reaching values and and attitudes in order to extend their permission to play to more categories (Nike is a prime example). This concept has become somewhat inverted—now, a brand or creator’s audience co-defines the values they represent.
Today, what is more important is following your vibe. A musician may be well-positioned to launch a candle, a cookbook, and a fashion line. Rather than the product itself, a deep understanding of their fans drives this decision. It’s easier than ever to spin up a Shopify store and drive customers there, so there is more experimentation than ever in this space.
Greener pastures
Ever conscious of “selling out” in the eyes of their audience, celebrities and influencers are moving beyond stale apparel collaborations into new categories. As we are stuck at home, we want fewer new clothes and are more willing to spend on home, food, and beauty (this handy resource listing the fastest-growing categories from earlier this year covers everything from home gym supplies (#4) to baking mixes (#38). It’s not surprising that tastemakers are pivoting to where the growth is, and staking a claim in categories that feel less blatantly “commercial.”
Multi-sensory experiences
Why own just one dimension of your fan’s experience when you can address them all? These products tap in to taste (Tesla, McDonald’s), smell (candles), and more. Kacey Musgraves released her candle collab to be enjoyed alongside her new album, creating a multisensory experience for her fans. Here’s how it’s described on their site:
Kacey Musgraves x Boy Smells: SLOW BURN is the name of KACEY MUSGRAVES' opening track from her fourth studio album, GOLDEN HOUR. To accompany the lyrics and music about living life in the slow lane, she and BOY SMELLS partnered on a scented candle that perfectly captures the smells and visual vibrancy that one hears in the song.
🔮 What’s next in 2021
This trend will extend further as brands themselves team up on unique collabs (Recess and Poolside.FM are an existing example). As people continue searching for meaningful experiences at home, the products will be increasingly whimsical and creative. Rather than distributing through mass retail, tastemakers and brands will partner with one another or manage their own distribution, fueling the irrelevance of traditional department stores and “mall brands.” This trend will extend beyond mega-celebrities. Anyone (or any brand) with a large and loyal following will be fair game. If enough people subscribe to Curious Commerce, you could be getting a candle for Christmas next year… working name, “This Smells Like My Newsletter” (lol).
A few crossovers I’m on the lookout for…
Houseplant varietal to accompany a musician’s new album.
Loose leaf tea blend to drink while reading your favorite author’s new book
High-end restaurants replicating the McDonald’s playbook to create limited-edition menu items in partnership with celeb clients
Doordash delivering make-at-home cocktails and snacks to correspond with the release of a new Netflix show
Tastemakers curating thrifted/vintage mystery boxes for their followers, in partnership with TheRealReal or another high-end resale platform.
GPS downloads of your favorite fitness instructor’s runs, hikes, and bike routes
From One:Many to Many:Many
All of these hypothetical launches are still structured as One:Many transactions. Individual brands and tastemakers create a product and push it to their audience. In 2021 I also expect to see a surge of community-driven product creation. As I wrote about earlier this year, Arfa is pioneering this model with their Collective. Further, I expect to see brands that have existing loyal communities grow more purposeful about leveraging their fans to develop products and guide their product roadmaps. As a Peloton enthusiast, tapping influential Peloton fan groups to develop limited-edition apparel and accessories seems like a probable step for the brand.
Trend #2: Never leaving the couch
Does anyone else remember The Big Comfy Couch? The premise—a girl (clown?) who keeps everything she needs for a fulfilling life at her fingertips in a giant couch—is 2020 in a nutshell. While I’m hoping we will be free to enjoy society again soon, it will be a purely optional decision thanks to advances in last-mile delivery.
At Estée Lauder my role is to help our brands launch same-day delivery, among other omnichannel fulfillment initiatives. One of my team’s recent efforts was the launch of Same Day Delivery via Postmates with MAC Cosmetics. As ordering food from these platforms becomes increasingly commonplace, adding the ability to purchase non-food items is a natural development. While it is still fairly rare for luxury brands to be listed on delivery marketplaces, this is beginning to change. There are many emerging flavors of immediate fulfillment that make sense for different categories:
GoPuff owns microwarehouses stocked with your bodega favorites. This enables them to deliver within an average 30 minute delivery window for a low delivery fee of $1.95.
Doordash, Postmates, Shipt, and Instacart are actively courting retail brands and are evolving their food-focused interfaces to be more retail friendly. Postmates recently launched an LA-based pilot featuring retail brands in a separate part of the app. Instacart as updated it’s site to reflect multiple categories, including pet and pharmacy:
Brands are increasingly building same-day options into their owned brand site journey, as is the case with MAC Cosmetics, Apple, and PetCo. When brands offer Same Day Delivery, they are leveraging their store inventory and staff, which makes sense in a world where retail traffic has declined by 30% or more.
Net-a-Porter and other high-end retailers have built their own white-glove courier operations.
While it’s in the healthcare space, I’m obsessed with Capsule pharmacy and their seamless approach to prescription fulfillment. I haven’t been to the pharmacy in months.
🔮 What’s next in 2021
As instant delivery becomes more commonplace across categories, there are a few changes I anticipate in 2021.
Branded everything
Courier services will continue to provide the behind-the-scenes fulfillment for Same Day orders, but the customer journey will become increasingly branded. For example, Sephora is currently leveraging the Instacart marketplace to make select products available for delivery. In 2021, more of these brands will build the ability to schedule delivery into their own sites. This enables better product storytelling and lets brands own all customer data collected throughout the purchase process.
Also, brands will add more touchpoints into the delivery process. For instance, pet brands could drop off treats for their furry customers along with orders. This would be an opportunity to encourage free trial, leading to future purchases, in addition to a fun add-on. Brands will get creative with packaging for their same-day orders, providing seamless opportunities to shop for additional items and learn more about how to maximize the products purchased. Custom QR codes could be used to guide purchasers of a certain makeup product to tutorials guiding customers on how to create full makeup looks.
We will see apparel and accessories brands offering Same Day Delivery, with the ability for customers to try on products and return what they don’t want. Retailers lose a third of revenue on returns—fulfilling them is costly and many returned items never make it back into sell-able inventory. Combining returns with home try-on is a premium customer offering that can command a higher delivery fee. This approach also makes the return cycle much faster, giving brands more time to resell the returned items.
Emerging platforms will help small brands take on Amazon
When seeking convenience, Amazon is often a consumer’s top choice. But what if consumers could support their favorite small retailers without sacrificing convenience? Several platforms are emerging to aggregate the inventory of DTC brands, neighborhood shops, and more and make it available for instant delivery.
FastAF is taking this approach for many of the popular DTC brands. Billie, Recess, and Brightland are a selection of brands currently on the platform. New Brooklyn-based marketplace Shop In NYC is focused on local boutiques and specialty shops. As with any new platform, the challenge is aggregating enough supply to keep customers coming back. I predicted earlier this year that we’d see an outpouring of support for local businesses as a result of the pandemic. I believe there is demand for a marketplace that makes it just as easy and affordable to shop your local favorites as to shop Amazon.
Another common critique of Amazon and other behemoth retailers is the environmental impact of ordering. While eCommerce can be beneficial for the environment vs. driving to stores, the lack of order consolidation incentivized by “Free Prime Delivery” negates these gains. Additionally, items are heavily packaged with plastic, and much of the cardboard packaging ends up in a landfill.
Solutions will emerge that allow consumers to have the convenience they crave, plus the knowledge that they are consuming in a more environmentally friendly way. One flavor of this approach? The old-school milkman model. Brands like Lark are bringing pack reusable packaging and local delivery fleets. Other categories with predictable utilization are ripe for this type of solution, including beauty, cleaning products, and other food/beverages.
Consumer services come home
Like pet products, food, and beauty, services will increasingly be available for home delivery. We are leaving the house less often as WFH has shifted the professional landscape. As such, all of the errands we built around our workday—the Sweetgreen run, the workout class, the nail salon appointment—are increasingly staying home with us. There are already options to schedule an at-home massage via Zeel or Soothe. Perhaps we will see increased popularity of on-demand services like dog grooming, haircuts, or manicures moving home.
Trend #3: Our “Revenge Dress” moment
As a founder in the women’s workwear space in 2019-2020, I operated in a time where casualization in our dressing habits was the norm. We created a middle ground of apparel that was meant to feel like pajamas while still looking professional. Notable hits in this category are the MM LaFleur Jardigan and the Lululemon ABC pant. We focused on the functional so we could move through our busy days efficiently. Fashion was a needless distraction.
In 2020, comfort reigned supreme. The world realized that we can work in pajamas and sweatpants as effectively as in a suit and tie. On the other hand, there’s something special about dressing up. Many of us may only return to the office for big presentations and important meetings. Our everyday uniforms will be replaced with Special Occasion uniforms. The need for an in-between wardrobe will shrink.
Retail bankruptcies reflect this bifurcation. Many of the brands hit hardest during the pandemic (J.Crew, Ascena-parent company of Ann Taylor, J.C. Penney, Lucky Brand) reflect this “in-between” style of dress and middle-of-the-road price point. Meanwhile, the pandemic has seen an emergence of indie brands (Selkie, Hill House, Lisa Says Gah) that champion fanciful, over-the-top aesthetics.
🔮 What’s next in 2021
This prediction is clearly focused on those who are still fortunate to have jobs and disposable income to make fashion choices. However, the rise of resale and increasingly prevalence of rental services enable more customers to access fashion without the full price tag.
Rental reemergence
Popular fashion rental service Rent the Runway suffered during the pandemic, as occasion-based dressing declined dramatically. Founder and CEO Jennifer Hyman believes this behavior will shift dramatically when a vaccine is available:
I think the back half of 2021 is going to be the best moment in time for the fashion industry that I've seen in my career. Fashion is about self-expression, it's about showing up in the world as you want people to see you. And I think that in the back half of next year, when we're able to celebrate, we're able to take vacations, we're able to go back into the office, people are going to want to show up in their own lives with passion. And as that corresponds to fashion, I think that people are going to be wearing bolder outfits, they're going to care about being noticed.
I’m betting on the rental economy in 2021 because consumers are still unsure what life will look like post-pandemic. Will we be returning to the 9-5 or working from home? The rental model allows consumers to get reacquainted with the lifestyle we missed during the pandemic without committing.
Recently-launched designer menswear rental service Seasons is another to watch in this space. Nuuly, the rental service owned by URBN, is taking on younger customers and features more casual styling. Category-specific platforms like Rebag are also interesting. While not a true rental service, Rebag allows customers to resell bags after a set period for an agreed-upon amount with their “Infinity Exchange” program.
Trend analysts are comparing the coming post-pandemic boom to the roaring ‘20s, when glitz, glam, and fashion were the norm. As a natural optimist, I look forward to what’s next.
A few faves from last year
If you’re looking for more reading material, here are a few of my favorite essays I published in 2020.
🛍 Trends in consumer and retail
💡 Smart ideas for brands
🎀 Strategy to support a deeper understanding of the consumer landscape
Onwards and upwards,
Melina